High-level Task Force on China's Environment and Development Outlook

The triple environmental crises of climate change, biodiversity loss, and pollution is pushing the planet to a tipping point. Meanwhile, global political and economic turbulence is making international environmental governance increasingly difficult.

In light of this, China has identified the need to accelerate its domestic environmental, economic, and social development and increase the country’s engagement in global environmental governance.

To support this ambition, CCICED’s ‘High-Level Task Force on China’s Environment and Development Outlook’ brings together leading Chinese and international experts to review past experiences and assess key trends, risks, and challenges for China’s environment and development progress—with concrete policy recommendations for both 2035 and 2050 scenarios.

Launched in early 2025, the High-Level Task Force published an interim synthesis report in December 2025 and will deliver 4 working group reports and its final synthesis report in 2026.

The High-Level Task Force’s research objectives include:

• Review the environment and development transformation in China and globally over the past decade.
• Identify and analyze major challenges China faces in achieving its vision of low-carbon and high-quality development by 2050.
• Present strategic assessments of China’s ability to realize its medium- and long-term vision.
• Propose comprehensive policy recommendations in support of green development in China and globally.

In 2026, the High-Level Task Force will produce a main Synthesis Report and several Thematic Reports. Each thematic report will focus on a critical area of environment and development and will review the current state of play, assess challenges and opportunities, and set out policy recommendations.

• Main Synthesis Report: “The Green Transformation: Towards Harmony between Humans and Nature”
• Thematic report 1: “Environmental Governance: Responding to the Three Planetary Crises”
• Thematic report 2: “Green Transition: Shifting Development Paradigms”
• Thematic report 3: “China and the World: Mutual Engagement in Sustainable Development Processes”
• Thematic report 4: “Green Governance: Reforming Institutions and Systems”

The Task Force published an executive summary of the interim report in December 2025: CCICED High Level Task Force on China’s Environment and Development Outlook – Executive Summary of Interim Report. The interim report presents high-level reflections and recommendations to guide the final working group and synthesis reports in 2026.

High-Level Task Force Kick-Off Meeting

The High-Level Task Force held its kick-off meeting on May 29, 2025. The meeting was attended by around 40 participants, including the Task Force’s leadership and experts, invited experts, and representatives of the CCICED Secretariat and its International Support Office.

Xie Zhenhua, CCICED Vice-Chairperson and China’s former Special Envoy for Climate Change, and Achim Steiner, CCICED Vice-Chairperson and UNDP Administrator, delivered opening speeches. Thereafter, Liu Shijin and Scott Vaughan, Deputy Chairs of the Task Force and CCICED’s Chinese and International Chief Advisors, respectively, introduced the background of the Task Force.

Ren Yong, leader of the Task Force’s core expert group and a CCICED Council Member, introduced the research focus and framework, followed by a discussion among the attending experts.

The discussion emphasized the importance of adopting a systems approach in the research, exploring the relationship between environment and development, and providing in-depth guidance for CCICED’s 8th research phase (2027–2032)—with the broader aim of advancing robust environment and development policies and practices in China and globally.

High-Level Task Force Draft Report Explored in Oxford Meeting

CCICED’s High-Level Task Force held an in-person meeting in Oxford on September 11, 2025. The meeting was attended by the leads of the project’s 4 working groups, a Chinese delegation led by Ren Yong, and invited experts. Achim Steiner opened the session, highlighting the Task Force’s dual purpose of assessing China’s environmental progress and shaping recommendations for the government’s upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan and beyond.

This was followed by remarks from Sir Charles Godfray, Director of the Oxford Martin School, and Ren Yong.

Scott Vaughan, CCICED International Chief Advisor, presented the draft synthesis report—to be published later this year—and the experts explored how to sharpen key messages, better weave in working group insights, and enhance the report’s framing of China’s domestic progress and evolving role in the global green transition. The High-Level Task Force’s final synthesis report with comprehensive policy guidance will be published next year.

CCICED Open Forum: Green Transition in China’s 15th Five Year Plan (FYP)

The CCICED Open Forum on the Green Transition in the 15th Five-Year Plan (FYP), held on October 16, 2025, at Beijing’s Diaoyutai State Guesthouse, brought together senior policy-makers, experts, and international partners to discuss how China’s next FYP can advance the country’s ecological and economic transformation. Taking place during the 2025 CCICED Annual General Meeting, the session examined progress over the past decade, set priorities for 2026–2030, and looked ahead to 2035 and carbon neutrality by mid-century.

Opening the forum, China’s Vice Minister Zhao Yingmin highlighted the complex global environment, emphasizing that the green transition must remain a central pillar of Beijing’s high-quality development drive. He urged that the upcoming FYP link immediate actions with the longer-term vision of Ecological Civilization and Beautiful China 2035. Former UN Development Programme administrator and CCICED vice chairperson Achim Steiner welcomed the work of the High-Level Task Force and called for stronger whole-of-government coordination on environment and development policies.

In his keynote, Ren Yong, CCICED council member and lead of the High-Level Task Force expert group, presented previous Chinese achievements, including rapid expansion of clean industries, a maturing national carbon market, and strengthened biodiversity protection through national parks and its “ecological red lines” scheme. He noted that continued investment in low-carbon technologies, nature-positive rules for renewable energy and raw materials supply, stronger data and pricing systems, and more flexible grids will be crucial for translating clean capacity into real emission reductions.

The first panel, chaired by Beate Trankmann, resident representative of the UN Development Programme’s China Office, explored progress and priorities for 2030. Speakers emphasized the importance of integrating social and economic policy, warning that some regions and workers risk being left behind during the transition, as well as the need for just transition pilots, fiscal support for local governments, and incentives that recognize social and environmental outcomes. Participants also discussed China’s global leadership in electric vehicles, batteries, and photovoltaics, suggesting that trade tensions should be converted into cooperation and co-investment.

The second panel, chaired by Jan Bakkes, senior strategic advisor to the director general of the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, focused on outlooks for 2035 and 2050. Experts agreed that foresight should guide decisions rather than predict them and called for integrated policy design linking renewable expansion, biodiversity, air quality, resource extraction, and climate extraction. They also echoed the first panel’s call for cooperation models that turn today’s trade frictions into jobs and investment across markets. Jan Hendrik Dronkers, Dutch secretary-general at the Ministry of Infrastructure and Water Management, emphasized the value of independent institutes for evaluating policies, metrics, and scenarios for delivery.

Across discussions, participants agreed on several priorities: pairing long-term vision with near-term delivery; aligning carbon, pollution, and nature targets with growth and local incentives; centering people and communities in the transition; investing in independent evidence and data systems; and deepening cooperation to de-risk supply chains and keep markets open.

Group Leader:

• Ren Yong, CCICED member and Chief Engineer of China’s Ministry of Ecology and Environment

Advisors:

• Kate Hampton, CCICED Council Member, CEO of Children’s Investment Fund Foundation (CIFF)
• Dirk Messner, CCICED Council Member, President of German Environment Agency (UBA)
• Gim Huay Neo, CCICED Special Advisor, Managing Director of World Economic Forum (WEF)\
• Lana Edwards, Acting Director-General of Bilateral Affairs and Trade Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC)
• Zhou Guomei, Deputy Secretary-General of CCICED, Director-General of Department of International Cooperation, MEE
• Wang Jinnan, Academician of Chinese Academy of Engineering (CAE)
• Pan Jiahua, Member of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS)
• Guo Jing, President of BRIGC
• Xia Guang, Vice President of All-China Environment Federation

Experts:

• Beate Trankmann, Resident Representative, UNDP China Office
• Wan Jun, Vice President of Chinese Academy of Environmental Planning, MEE
• Zhang Yongsheng, Director General of Institute of Ecological Civilization, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences
• Zhang Haibin, Vice Dean of School of International Relations, Peking University
• Yu Hai, Deputy Director General of Policy Research Center for Environment and Economy, MEE
• Miranda Schreurs, Professor of Climate and Environmental Policy, Technical University of Munich
• Chen Gang, Secretary General, BRIGC (Liason)
• Shardul Agrawala, Head, Environment and Economy Integration Division, Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)
• Leo Horn-Phathanothai, Affiliate Researcher with the Asia Centre, Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) and Senior Adviser, Systemiq
• Sarah Cook, Professor and Head of School of Economics University of Nottingham Ningbo
• Knut Alfsen, CEO of Alfsen Consulting, Senior Advisor to Accrona AS, and Special Advisor to CCICED